Overbidding has returned to the Greater Toronto Area’s real estate market ahead of the spring selling season, with dozens of neighbourhoods entering overbidding territory last month, according to Wahi’s latest monthly Market Pulse Report.

In February, a total of 76 neighbourhoods (25.1%) were in overbidding territory, up from none in January. An additional 17 (5.6%) were selling at-asking, and 210 (69.3%) were underbid. The last time the GTA saw any neighbourhoods in overbidding territory was November 2023, when 16 were overbid. “While the start of the year was defined by nearly all of the GTA’s neighbourhoods being in underbidding territory, we were still seeing bidding wars break out at specific price points, particularly for houses listed below $1 million,” says Wahi CEO Benjy Katchen. “Some homes in this price range have been getting a lot of attention, occasionally selling for several hundred thousand over asking — and attracting up to 60 or more offers — even if the overall market trend was one of underbidding,” he adds.

At the end of each month, Wahi compares the differences between median list and sold prices to determine whether a neighbourhood is in overbidding or underbidding territory, excluding those neighbourhoods with fewer than five transactions in a given month. A total of 303 neighbourhoods met this criteria last month. The top overbidding and underbidding neighbourhoods are ranked by the median overbid or underbid amount (see the methodology below for a more detailed explanation).

Last month’s top overbidding neighbourhoods were scattered across the region, including parts of Ajax, Brampton, Markham, Pickering, and the City of Toronto.

As with previous months, the leading underbidding neighbourhoods generally had higher home prices.

When looking only at condo transactions, just 10 neighbourhoods, or 7.3%,  were in overbidding territory in February, albeit up from zero in January. An additional six (4.4%) were selling at-asking and 122 (88.4%) remained in underbidding territory. Seven of the 10 overbidding neighbourhoods for condos were located within the City of Toronto, while two were found in Brampton, and one in Markham.

For comparison, the non-condo segment saw 88 neighbourhoods in overbidding territory, also up from zero in the previous month. This suggests that the market for ground-oriented housing in the GTA remains considerably more competitive. The non-condo segment includes any homes that do not have monthly maintenance fees and generally encompasses detached and semi-detached houses as well as row and townhomes. “Both the condo and non-condo corners of the market are showing signs of heating up, but for now, it appears condo buyers are less likely to face a serious bidding war,” says Katchen.

The median overbid and underbid amounts are calculated by subtracting the sold price from the list price of each individual listing in a given neighbourhood. These are then ranked by the median of all subtractions and presented as the median overbid or underbid amount. When a neighbourhood is in overbidding territory, it doesn’t necessarily mean that every home is selling above-asking. Instead, it’s a general reflection of overall market behaviour, which can be influenced by seasonal factors, for example, or decisions by sellers, such as to list homes below market value to try and attract more bids. 

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