The deadly condominium collapse in Surfside, Fla., could reshape the way experts model catastrophe risk along a coastline that is already vulnerable to wind and water damage from tropical systems.
Structural considerations typically take into account how a building could withstand hurricanes, but the flaws suspected as culprits in the sudden destruction of Chaplain Towers South will add another layer to how modelers and underwriters determine risk. The official death toll from the collapse stands at 97.
The collapse and loss of life was “shocking and alarming” even to those who study loss exposure like CoreLogic Inc. engineer and risk modeler Tom Larsen. CoreLogic will investigate more buildings as part of its service, Larsen said in an interview.
“There is cause for that, and a pragmatic positioning is that we will find more buildings that are perhaps not close to imminent collapse but have had needs overlooked,” he said. CoreLogic will await a detailed analysis behind the condominium’s construction and maintenance before reevaluating its modeling, Larsen said.
“I expect that there will be multiple conclusions — not just a single aspect.”
Florida officials do not expect to determine a definitive cause for the collapse for months, if not longer. An engineer that the property’s association board hired to inspect the building informed members in 2018 that the foundation had significant damage, The New York Times reported.
If structural flaws discovered prove to be contributors to the collapse, the incident represents “a colossal failure” of risk management on the part of the board, said David Prager, managing director and insurance adviser with Kroll.
Members of volunteer boards tend to be chosen based more on personal popularity than on qualifications, Prager said in an interview, adding that responsible boards need to have a diverse set of expertise that would include knowledge of construction.
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