January 15, 2019

CREA – Canadian home sales fall further in December

Ottawa, ON, January 15, 2019 – Statistics released today by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) show national home sales posted a fourth-straight monthly decline in December 2018.

Highlights:

National home sales fell 2.5% from November to December.
Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down by 19% from one year ago.
The number of newly listed homes was little changed from November to December.
The MLS^® Home Price Index (HPI) was up 1.6% year-over-year (y-o-y) in December.
The national average sale price fell by 4.9% y-o-y in December.

Home sales via Canadian MLS^® Systems fell by 2.5% in December 2018 compared to November, capping the weakest annual sales since 2012. Monthly declines in activity since September have fully retrenched its summer rally and returned it near the lowest level since early 2013.

Transactions declined in about 60% of all local markets in December, led by lower activity in Greater Vancouver, Vancouver Island, Ottawa, London & St. Thomas, and Halifax-Dartmouth, together with a regionally diverse mix of other large and medium sized urban centres.

Actual (not seasonally adjusted) activity was down 19% y-o-y in December 2018 and stood almost 12% below the 10-year average for the month of December. Sales were down from year-ago levels in three-quarters of all local markets, led overwhelmingly by the Lower Mainland of British Columbia, the Okanagan Region, Calgary, Edmonton, the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton-Burlington.

This decline, in part, is due to elevated activity posted in December 2017 as home buyers rushed to purchase in advance of the new federal mortgage stress test that came into effect on January 1, 2018.

“What a difference a year makes,” said CREA President Barb Sukkau. “Sales trends were pushed higher in December 2017 by home buyers rushing to purchase before the new federal mortgage stress-test took effect at the beginning of 2018. Since then, the stress-test has weighed on sales to varying degrees in all Canadian housing markets and it will continue to do so this year. All real estate is local. A professional REALTOR^® remains your best source for information and guidance in negotiating the purchase or sale of a home during these changing times,” added Sukkau.

“The Bank of Canada recently said that it expects housing activity will stay ‘soft’ as households ‘adjust to the mortgage stress-test and increases in mortgage rates,’ even as jobs and incomes continue growing,” said Gregory Klump, CREA’s Chief Economist. “Indeed, the Bank’s economic forecast shows it expects housing will undermine economic growth this year as the mortgage stress test has pushed home ownership affordability out of reach for some home buyers,” he added.

The number of newly listed homes remained little changed (+0.2%) from November to December, with declines in close to half of all local markets offset by gains in the remainder.

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