The trend in housing starts was 286,620 units in July, down from 293,085 units in June, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“The six-month trend in housing starts declined from June to July, reflecting the recent moderation in total starts from the highs recorded earlier this year,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist. “In July, higher single-detached SAAR starts failed to offset a decrease in multi-family SAAR starts in Canada’s urban areas, leading to a decline in overall SAAR starts for the month. However, the level of activity remains elevated by historical standards, both on a trend and monthly SAAR basis. Among the markets of Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal, only Toronto registered growth in total SAAR starts in July, driven once again by strong growth in the multi-family segment.”

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada’s housing market. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as the multi-unit segment largely drives the market and can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 272,176 units in July, a decrease of 3.2% from 281,200 units in June. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 0.65% in July to 249,001 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 3.1% to 184,759 units in July while single-detached urban starts increased by 7.1% to 64,242 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 23,175 units.

cmhc-schl.gc.ca

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