Canada’s housing starts continue to show signs of regional divergence, with the six-month trend in housing starts falling 3% in October 2025, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). The trend measure, which smooths short-term fluctuations using a six-month moving average of the seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR), dropped to 268,907 units.

Nationally, the monthly SAAR fell 17%, from 279,174 units in September to 232,765 units in October. Actual housing starts in centres with populations of 10,000 or more declined 3% year-over-year, with 19,174 units recorded in October compared to 19,763 in the same month of 2024. Despite the monthly and trend declines, year-to-date housing starts remain 5% higher than the same period last year, totaling 197,207 units.

Regionally, the data highlights sharp contrasts. Declines in Ontario and British Columbia drove the national slowdown, while strong gains in markets like Montréal, Calgary, and Edmonton provided upward pressure on year-to-date totals. Montréal led the growth with a 104% year-over-year increase, mainly due to a surge in multi-unit starts. In contrast, Toronto and Vancouver experienced sharp declines of 42% and 36%, respectively, with fewer multi-unit and single-detached starts.

According to Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, Deputy Chief Economist at CMHC, these shifts reflect long-term investment decisions and regional economic factors, underscoring persistent imbalances in housing supply trends across Canada. The rural housing starts SAAR was estimated at 22,062 units for the month.

The October data reinforces the importance of regional analysis in Canada’s housing market. While national figures suggest a slowdown, localized trends reveal a more nuanced picture—where some urban centres continue to build at a strong pace, others are experiencing significant slowdowns due to economic pressures, regulatory hurdles, and project timing.

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