Retrofitting existing buildings is one of the only tools for mitigating climate change that virtually everyone can agree on. There are large numbers of poorly insulated buildings using fossil fuels for water and space heating. Abandoning those buildings would be a colossal waste, so to move towards a zero emissions future, they need to be retrofitted. And the massive amount of work required to renovate existing buildings would generate substantial economic activity, so it can’t even be billed as a sacrifice or tradeoff.

Canada is no exception. The federal government’s new “2030 Emissions Reduction Plan” reports that buildings and their energy use contribute roughly 17 percent of Canada’s overall emissions. The overwhelming majority of that comes from combustion of fossil fuels for space and water heating. Meeting Canada’s climate goals—let alone the levels of emissions reduction required to keep global warming below two degrees Celcius—requires a massive improvement in the efficiency of our built environment. Accordingly, the government aims to reduce emissions from buildings from 91 megatonnes of CO2 equivalent in 2019 to 53 megatonnes by 2030.

But the numbers don’t add up. According to an analysis by the Pembina Institute and cited by the federal government, 11.4 million homes need to be retrofitted by 2040 for Canada to achieve “net zero.” The government’s primary policy instruments for accelerating the uptake of residential retrofits are the Canada Greener Homes Grant program and the Greener Homes Loan Program. The grant program is limited to just 700,000 applicants; the loan program to 175,000 (who must already be participating in the grant program).

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