October 7, 2026
A new study from the Business Development Bank of Canada (BDC), conducted with support from the Transition Accelerator, estimates that planned major projects could generate an additional $670 billion in investment across Canada between 2026 and 2030, creating significant opportunities for Canadian businesses and the supply chains supporting construction and infrastructure development.
According to the study, these investments could generate approximately $443 billion in cumulative economic activity and raise Canada’s GDP by 4.1% above the baseline scenario by 2030.
Delivering the projects could require participation from approximately 280,000 Canadian businesses, with small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) expected to represent the majority.
BDC identifies five areas at the centre of the projected $670 billion investment pipeline:
Together, these sectors could create opportunities extending well beyond the companies directly developing major projects.
Contractors, engineering firms, equipment providers, manufacturers, technology companies, professional services firms and other suppliers could all play roles within the broader project supply chains.
BDC surveyed 1,000 Canadian businesses, including 750 already participating in large projects and 250 interested in becoming involved.
Among SMEs already participating, 67% expect to increase their involvement during the next 24 months. That rises to 88% among high-growth businesses and 77% among companies operating in technology and primary sectors.
More than one-third of respondents indicated they could scale their businesses to meet additional demand, although the study found significant differences in readiness between companies.
According to BDC, larger SMEs operating in construction, technology and information services with previous major-project experience appear better positioned to capitalize on upcoming opportunities.
Companies already accustomed to large projects have experience navigating complex procurement requirements, schedules, financing and project delivery expectations.
However, even businesses with strong growth ambitions identified complex tendering processes and tight deadlines as significant barriers.
Smaller SMEs and companies with less major-project experience reported additional challenges, including perceived risk and cash constraints.
The scale of Canada’s planned investment does not automatically mean every Canadian SME will be able to participate.
BDC identifies a readiness and capacity gap that could prevent some businesses from taking advantage of major-project opportunities.
Potential measures highlighted by the study include providing companies with better information about upcoming projects, offering smaller contract packages, reducing certain financial or bonding requirements, improving payment predictability and adapting procurement processes to better reflect SME operating realities.
These changes could make it easier for smaller businesses to participate in major-project supply chains and gradually increase their capacity.
Beyond the immediate construction activity, BDC argues that Canada’s major-project pipeline could provide businesses with opportunities to invest in technology, improve productivity, develop partnerships and expand through acquisitions.
For Canada’s construction industry, the opportunity spans multiple interconnected markets.
Housing and civil infrastructure represent the largest projected investment category, while energy, mining, natural gas, defence infrastructure and rapidly expanding AI data centre development could generate additional demand for construction expertise, equipment, materials, engineering and specialized services.
Whether the full economic opportunity is realized will depend partly on the ability of Canadian businesses to build capacity and successfully participate in the supply chains needed to deliver these projects.
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