A new report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) reveals that restoring housing affordability to 2019 levels will require building between 430,000 and 480,000 new housing units per year over the next decade—double the current rate of home construction in Canada.

The report highlights housing supply gaps across the country’s largest Census Metropolitan Areas (CMAs) and introduces specific estimates for both ownership and rental housing needs. These new figures aim to guide policymakers and industry stakeholders by quantifying how many homes are needed above the “business-as-usual” projections to improve affordability.

• Montréal faces the largest housing supply gap. Homeownership costs have risen faster than any other major CMA relative to local incomes, requiring significant increases in both rental and ownership housing starts.
• Toronto must increase housing construction by 70% to improve affordability, particularly in the ownership market.
• Vancouver needs an additional 7,200 housing starts per year (a 29% increase) beyond current projections to ease affordability challenges.
• Calgary needs 45% more housing starts annually, despite recent construction booms.
• Ottawa-Gatineau has the second-largest supply gap, as demand has outpaced supply since the pandemic.
• Edmonton is the only major CMA where current projections meet future needs—though this doesn’t account for ongoing social housing challenges.

At the provincial level, Ontario, Nova Scotia, and British Columbia have the most pressing housing supply gaps, due in part to the sharp rise in housing costs during the pandemic.

The CMHC report underscores that doubling construction output is possible, but achieving this will demand:

• A modernized construction workforce
• Increased private sector investment
• Regulatory reform and reduced permitting delays
• Innovation in building technologies
• Gains in labour productivity

According to CMHC Deputy Chief Economist Aled ab Iorwerth, systemic transformation is essential to scale up housing delivery and reduce the affordability crisis.

The report focuses on market housing for average-income Canadians and does not fully account for the needs of low-income households or those experiencing homelessness. With affordability restoration now measured against 2019 benchmarks, the goal reflects a more realistic path forward in the current housing environment.

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