The Canadian population hit the 40M mark on Friday, and at the same time, housing supply has plainly not kept pace. A new report from CIBC Economics delves into the particulars of Canada’s housing shortfall, saying that while there is some debate on its extent, there’s no denying that the situation requires immediate attention.

“Guesstimating the size of the housing shortage in Canada is rapidly becoming a national sport. There is no shortage of estimates using different methodologies and assumptions,” writes Benjamin Tal, Deputy Chief Economist at CIBC. “The reality is that there is no one correct number. It really depends on what you are trying to measure. But what is common to all those estimates is that they are all big.”

Tal points to a report from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, released last summer, which estimates that the country will need 3.5 million additional housing units by 2030 to restore affordability.

“The real gap is even larger, as official figures (upon which those estimates are based on) grossly undercount housing demand by students and non-permanent residents, as we have illustrated in previous research. The gap is growing with every day that passes without meaningful action.”

What’s more, Tal continues, Canada is facing a staggering construction labour shortage — the average number of workers per unit under construction has fallen from six to four over the past decade — which is undoubtedly hindering housing production.

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