Construction jobs are set to become the next victim of high interest rates as the housing backlogs that have helped keep demand for workers steady start to diminish.

Record wait times for home construction have until now kept overall building activity elevated even as soaring borrowing costs over the last year have severely limited new projects. That’s left many construction firms struggling to attract and retain labor while other sectors like technology and finance have cut jobs.

But the tide seems to be turning as the number of housing projects waiting for completion has begun to fall. That means the popular notion that any downturn this year will be mild by historical standards as firms seek to “hoard” labor is about to be put to the test.

“If you were to do the typical math of how weak construction jobs should be right now based on investment in structures spending, it’s pretty bad,” said Sarah Wolfe, an economist at Morgan Stanley in New York.

The US construction sector shed a net 9,000 jobs in March, marking the first decline in 14 months after employment rose to a record 7.9 million in February, according to Labor Department figures. Construction layoffs jumped to 3.7% of total employment, up from 2.3% in February, marking one of the biggest leaps on record in data beginning in 2000.

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