Tuesday, October 22, 2019

Canadian housing starts trend increased in July

Canadian housing starts July

OTTAWA, August 9, 2017 — The trend in housing starts was 217,550 units in July 2017, compared to 215,175 units in June 2017, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“In July, Canada’s pace in housing construction ramped up for a seventh consecutive month,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist. “British Columbia and Alberta were the main contributors to the higher trend in housing starts. While BC’s construction coincides with near-record low completed and unsold units in the past few months, Alberta’s inventory of new unsold homes is ramping up, highlighting the need for managing inventories.”

Monthly highlights

Toronto

Total housing starts in the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area trended lower in July. Lower trending apartment and single-detached starts were mainly responsible for the decline. Overall, total housing starts were still trending close to the average level seen so far this year. Strong increases in semi-detached and town home starts pointed to affordability concerns driving demand for less expensive housing types.

Vancouver

Vancouver CMA housing starts were up slightly in July due to the construction of more townhomes and apartments getting underway. The largest increase in construction activity occurred in Burnaby, New Westminster and Coquitlam, as the relative affordability of more modestly priced townhomes and apartments in these communities supported consumer demand. The number of units under construction in the Vancouver CMA remains near record highs, and developers will be keeping an eye on market conditions as these projects are completed in the coming year.

Calgary

After a slow start, the trend in new home construction this year has increased, moving closer in line with historical averages. Multiple starts in particular have been strong in recent months, including July, despite inventories sitting at near record highs. If the current pace of production does not ease, there is the possibility that inventories will stay elevated for an extended period of time.

Ottawa

July housing starts trended up on the back of strong multiple construction. Multiple starts this year have been driven by the rise in rental apartment starts, which to July reached about 1.5 times their level for 2016 as a whole. Builders are diversifying high-rise product as a substantial number of completed condominium apartment units remain unsold. In addition, an ageing rental stock, and robust rental demand are contributing to increased building activity for rental units.

Gatineau

With construction getting under way on several large rental projects at the same time, housing starts in the Gatineau area were up considerably in July. The rising demand, supported in part by stronger employment, will help residential construction stay on an upward trend over the coming months.

London

Single-detached starts in both the City of London and London CMA posted the highest levels for the month of July since 2007. The continued elevated number of single-detached starts is driven largely by demand spillover from the resale market, which has seen a dramatic increase in the sales of homes priced at $500,000 and over. Also, the price gap between single-detached homes in London and comparable homes in Toronto has continued to remain wide, making London an attractive destination for buyers from the Greater Toronto Area.

Greater Sudbury

Housing starts in Greater Sudbury trended lower in July, due to a decline in both single detached and multiple starts. The trend dipped for the seventh consecutive month, reflecting declines in full-time employment and a healthy supply in the resale market.

Nova Scotia

Construction in both the singles and multiples markets in Halifax continues to show strength in July with year-over-year starts increasing by 15% and 31%, respectively. Year-to-date, the singles market has witnessed the strongest number of starts since 2013, while the multiples market continues to be a driver of residential construction, especially on the Halifax Peninsula and Mainland North regions.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada’s housing market. In some situations analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as they are largely driven by the multi-unit segment of the market which can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 222,324 units in July, up from 212,948 units in June. The SAAR of urban starts increased by 5.5 per cent in July to 206,122 units. Multiple urban starts increased by 10.4 per cent to 141,950 units in July and single-detached urban starts decreased by 3.9 per cent, to 64,172 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 16,202 units.

Preliminary Housing Starts data are also available in English and French through our website and through CMHC’s Housing Market Information Portal. Our analysts are also available to provide further insight into their respective markets.

As Canada’s authority on housing, CMHC contributes to the stability of the housing market and financial system, provides support for Canadians in housing need, and offers objective housing research and information to Canadian governments, consumers and the housing industry.

For more information, visit the CMHC website or follow on TwitterYouTubeLinkedIn and Facebook.

Preliminary Housing Start Data in Centres 10,000 Population and Over
Single-DetachedAll OthersTotal
July 2016July 2017%July 2016July 2017%July 2016July 2017%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.-L.76952519622269515765
P.E.I.16319415472133178152
N.S.129146132052381633438415
N.B.7212269267418598196100
Atlantic293394342654215955881546
Qc590662121,8962,587362,4863,24931
Ont.2,7792,691-34,1954,48276,9747,1733
Man.19926634434133-69633399-37
Sask.2032156223203-9426418-2
Alta.9161,285401,2231,561282,1392,84633
Prairies1,3181,766341,8801,89713,1983,66315
B.C.1,011998-12,2702,922293,2813,92019
Canada (10,000+)5,9916,511910,50612,3091716,49718,82014
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission5224-543415736286181110
Barrie92101101261-99218102-53
Belleville**39##**36##**75##
Brantford93124424631633394185
Calgary32743031764716-61,0911,1465
Edmonton38749829378716897651,21459
Greater Sudbury2928-3342-946330-52
Guelph2918-38481003326-21
Halifax7283151481943122027726
Hamilton8752-40293204-30380256-33
Kelowna52876714341-71195128-34
Kingston4342-218186160-2
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo13369-48529304-43662373-44
Lethbridge**45##**18##**63##
London138197434138-717923531
Moncton3037232117-1951546
Montréal26127551,0901,553421,3511,82835
Oshawa921009819-89173109-37
Ottawa-Gatineau177276563921,0151595691,291127
Gatineau1762265141427203158489209
Ottawa1602143425158813441180295
Peterborough6032-47015##6047-22
Québec6411884428364-15492482-2
Regina588445142105-26200189-6
Saguenay2416-3310103426-24
St. Catharines-Niagara207155-25659445272249-8
Saint John122611721-50142793
St. John’s58793615603007313990
Saskatoon122111-96589371872007
Sherbrooke2612-543836-56448-25
Thunder Bay2316-3042-502718-33
Toronto1,140928-192,3592,864213,4993,7928
Trois-Rivières12271254034-15526117
Vancouver495492-11,6181,906182,1132,39813
Victoria8984-6215611184304695129
Windsor788145641-27134122-9
Winnipeg1742071939183-79565290-49
Total4,6524,90059,56811,4251914,22016,32515

Data for 2016 based on 2011 Census Definitions.
Data for 2017 based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC

** Belleville and Lethbridge were not metropolitan areas in 2016.
## not calculable/extreme value

Preliminary Housing Start Data — Seasonally Adjusted at Annual Rates (SAAR)
Single-DetachedAll OthersTotal
June 2017July 2017%June 2017July 2017%June 2017July 2017%
Provinces (10,000+)
N.L.54975638506606201,0551,36229
P.E.I.235229-3924564-391,159793-32
N.S.1,3551,278-66552,6993122,0103,97798
N.B.770756-2634801261,4041,55711
Qc6,2876,439229,76629,392-136,05335,831-1
Ont.27,73625,720-747,73850,551675,47476,2711
Man.2,9052,562-123,2521,596-516,1574,158-32
Sask.1,8472,181182,5202,436-34,3674,6176
Alta.14,13913,597-415,36418,3622029,50331,9598
B.C.10,94510,654-327,16234,9432938,10745,59720
Canada (10,000+)66,76864,172-4128,521141,95010195,289206,1226
Canada (All Areas)79,88376,780-4133,067145,5439212,948222,3244
Metropolitan Areas
Abbotsford-Mission427265-382,7961,884-333,2232,149-33
Barrie803760-51,03212-991,835772-58
Belleville423314-2624432##44774667
Brantford61318421540756406011,07479
Calgary4,9034,771-311,3408,592-2416,24313,363-18
Edmonton5,9635,407-93,1328,5921749,09513,99954
Greater Sudbury1101483516824-86278172-38
Guelph204139-3234896-72552235-57
Halifax891761-151442,328##1,0353,089198
Hamilton882461-481,2602,448942,1422,90936
Kelowna9721,03871,608492-692,5801,530-41
Kingston297371252,412216-912,709587-78
Kitchener-Cambridge-Waterloo784693-121,6083,6481272,3924,34181
Lethbridge456480520421666606965
London1,8181,97394,032456-895,8502,429-58
Moncton283242-14360204-43643446-31
Montréal2,6822,748213,38418,5463916,06621,29433
Oshawa1,136805-295,256108-986,392913-86
Ottawa-Gatineau2,5562,65844,80012,1801547,35614,838102
Gatineau76570##8765,1244859525,694498
Ottawa2,4802,088-163,9247,056806,4049,14443
Peterborough288258-10132180364204384
Québec9571,2463013,4164,368-6714,3735,614-61
Regina599919531,4041,260-102,0032,1799
Saguenay11712910961202521324917
St. Catharines-Niagara1,3411,265-61,0081,128122,3492,3932
Saint John13220152012##13221361
St. John’s39669475468720548641,41464
Saskatoon1,0801,09929481,068132,0282,1677
Sherbrooke344136-60552432-22896568-37
Thunder Bay10896-1128824-92396120-70
Toronto10,5579,673-825,29634,3683635,85344,04123
Trois-Rivières204291433724081057669921
Vancouver4,8435,116619,02022,8722023,86327,98817
Victoria84892892,3287,3322153,1768,260160
Windsor893806-10600492-181,4931,298-13
Winnipeg2,4922,069-173,180996-695,6723,065-46

Data based on 2016 Census Definitions.
Source: Market Analysis Centre, CMHC
## not calculable / extreme value

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