The trend in housing starts was 260,567 units in December, down from 267,606 units in November, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This trend measure is a six-month moving average of the monthly seasonally adjusted annual rates (SAAR) of housing starts.

“The six-month trend in housing starts was lower from November to December, but remains at very high levels,” said Bob Dugan, CMHC’s chief economist. “For SAAR housing starts in Canada’s urban areas, both single-detached and multi-family starts decreased in December. On a positive note, actual urban housing starts were 21% higher in 2021, adding much needed supply. The increase was driven by higher single-detached (28%) and multi-family (19%) starts and was mainly due to recovery following COVID-19 shutdown measures in 2020.”

On a trend and monthly SAAR basis, the level of housing starts activity in Canada remains high in historical terms. Among Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal, Vancouver was the only market to post growth in total SAAR starts in December, due to higher single-detached and multi-family starts.

CMHC uses the trend measure as a complement to the monthly SAAR of housing starts to account for considerable swings in monthly estimates and obtain a more complete picture of Canada’s housing market. In some situations, analyzing only SAAR data can be misleading, as the multi-unit segment largely drives the market and can vary significantly from one month to the next.

The standalone monthly SAAR of housing starts for all areas in Canada was 236,106 units in December, a decrease of 22% from 303,813 units in November. The SAAR of urban starts decreased by 24% in December to 212,918 units. Multiple urban starts decreased by 29% to 157,687 units in December, while single-detached urban starts decreased by 4% to 55,231 units.

Rural starts were estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 23,188 units.

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